McKinsey & Company is a global management consulting firm founded in 1926 by University of Chicago professor James O. McKinsey, that offers professional services to corporations, governments, and other organizations. McKinsey is the oldest and largest of the "Big Three" management consultancies (MBB), the world's three largest strategy consulting firms by revenue.
McKinsey & Company是一家全球管理咨询公司，由芝加哥大学教授James O. McKinsey于 1926?年创立，为企业、政府和其他组织提供专业服务。麦肯锡是“三巨头”管理咨询公司（MBB）中历史最悠久、规模最大的一家，按收入计为全球三大战略咨询公司。
?
The metaverse is still being defined, both literally and figuratively. Yet its potential to unleash the next wave of digital disruption seems increasingly clear, with real-life benefits already emerging for early adopting users and companies. As we saw in previous shifts in technology such as the emergence of the internet followed by social media, mobile, and cloud, novel strategies can quickly become mainstream. The metaverse has the potential to impact everything from employee engagement to the customer experience, sales and marketing, product innovation, and community building.
This report examines the metaverse’s building blocks, investment flows, and what is driving them, and how consumer and business behavior is evolving, its potential economic impact, and actions business leaders should consider to capture value.
无论是从字面上还是从象征意义上讲，元宇宙都还在定义之中。然而，它释放出下一波数字颠覆的潜力似乎越来越明显，早期的元宇宙用户和公司已经尝到了实实在在的甜头。正如我们在之前的技术变革中所看到的那样，像是互联网的出现，以及随后的社交媒体、移动和云计算，新颖的战略可以迅速成为主流。元宇宙有可能影响到从员工参与到客户体验、销售和营销、产品创新和社区建设等各个方面。
本报告研究了元宇宙的构建、投资流和驱动因素，以及消费者和商业行为如何演变、其潜在的经济影响，以及商业领袖为获取价值应考虑什么。
— ?There continue to be questions around the longevity and potential of the metaverse, with some view regarding it as merely a rebranded gaming platform of little wider interest.?We do not share that skepticism and believe the metaverse has the potential to be the next iteration of the internet. It may seamlessly combine our digital and physical lives by featuring a sense of immersion, real-time interactivity, interoperability across platforms and devices, the ability for thousands of people to interact simultaneously, and use cases spanning activities well beyond gaming.
— ?The metaverse’s technology stack has four core building blocks: content and experiences, platforms (such as game engines), infrastructure and hardware (including devices and networks), and enablers (such as payment mechanisms and security).
— ?Large technology companies, venture capital (VC), private equity (PE), start-ups, and established brands are seeking to capitalize on the metaverse opportunity. They have already invested more than $120 billion in the metaverse in the first five months of 2022, more than double the $57 billion invested in all of 2021.
— ?关于元宇宙的寿命和潜力仍然存疑，有些人认为它只是一个改头换面的游戏平台，没有什么广泛的意义。我们不同意这种观点，我们相信元宇宙有可能成为互联网的下一次迭代。它可以通过沉浸感、实时互动性、跨平台和设备的互操作性、数千人同时互动的能力，以及跨越游戏之外的活动使用案例，将我们的数字生活和实际生活无缝结合起来。
— ?元宇宙的技术栈有四个核心构建块：内容和体验、平台（如游戏引擎）、基础设施和硬件（包括设备和网络），以及推动者（如支付机制和安全）。
— ?大型科技公司、风险投资(VC)、私募股权(PE)、初创企业和知名品牌都在寻求元宇宙机会。在2022年的前五个月，他们已经在元宇宙投资了1200多亿美元，比2021年全年投资的570亿美元多出一倍。
?
Connectivity is the biggest driver for people, followed by the potential to explore digital worlds. Some 95 percent of business leaders expect the metaverse to have a positive impact on their industry within five to ten years, and 61 percent expect it to moderately change the way their industry operates.
— ?While estimates of the potential economic value of the metaverse vary widely, our bottom-up view of consumer and enterprise use cases suggests it may generate up to $5 trillion in impact by 2030— equivalent to the size of the world’s third-largest economy today, Japan.
— ?For instance, we estimate it may have a market impact of between $2 trillion and $2.6 trillion on e-commerce by 2030, depending on whether a base or upside case is realized. Similarly, we estimate it to have an impact of $180 billion to $270 billion on the academic virtual learning market, a $144 billion to $206 billion impact on the advertising market, and a $108 billion to $125 billion impact on the gaming market.
连接性是人们的最大驱动力，其次是探索数字世界的潜力。约95%的企业领导人预计，元宇宙将在五到十年内对他们的行业产生积极影响，61%的人预计元宇宙将适度改变他们的行业运作方式。
— ?不同人对元宇宙潜在经济价值的估计差异很大，我们对消费者和企业用例的自下而上的看法表明，到2030年，它可能产生高达5万亿美元的影响——相当于今天世界第三大经济体日本的规模。
— ?比如说，我们估计，到2030年，它可能对电子商务产生2万亿至2.6万亿美元的市场影响，这取决于基本情况或上升情况是否实现。同样，我们估计它对学术虚拟学习市场的影响为1800亿至2700亿美元，对广告市场的影响为1440亿至2060亿美元，对游戏市场的影响为1080亿至1250亿美元。
?
Defining the undefined: What is the metaverse, really?
While the definition is still fluid—and will likely continue to be for some time—the consensus view is that metaverse is?the next iteration of the internet, where it becomes something we are immersed in, rather than something we just view. “The metaverse will be the successor to the mobile internet,” Mark Zuckerberg said last November as he announced that the name of the company he cofounded, Facebook, was changing to Meta. “We’ll be able to feel present—like we’re right there with people no matter how far apart we actually are.”
Definition and characteristics
Our working definition positions the metaverse as the next iteration of the internet that seamlessly combines our digital and physical lives. First, the development of the metaverse is gaining momentum as billions of dollars are invested, gaming continues to seed the emerging metaverse, and nongaming use cases emerge for both businesses and consumers.
At its most basic, the metaverse will have three features:
a sense of immersion
real-time interactivity
user agency
Ultimately, the full vision of the metaverse will also include the following:
interoperability across platforms and devices
concurrency with thousands of people interacting simultaneously
use cases spanning human activity well beyond gaming
如何定义：元宇宙到底是什么？
虽然定义仍在变化，而且可能会持续一段时间，但一致的看法是，元宇宙是互联网的下一次迭代，它成为我们沉浸在其中的东西，而不只是观看。去年11月，马克·扎克伯格在宣布Facebook将改名为Meta时说：“元宇宙将是移动互联网的继任者。”“我们将能够感到存在，就像我们就在人们身边，无论我们实际上相隔多远。”
定义和特征
我们将元宇宙定位为互联网的下一次迭代，它将我们的数字生活和现实生活无缝结合。首先，随着数十亿美元的投资，元宇宙的发展势头迅猛，游戏继续成为新兴元宇宙的种子，企业和消费者的非游戏用例也在不断涌现。
在最基本的情况下，元宇宙将有三个特点：
身临其境的感觉
实时互动性
用户代理
最终，元宇宙的完整愿景还将包括以下内容：
跨平台和设备的互操作性
数以千计的人同时互动的并发性
远远超过游戏的涵盖人类活动的用例
?
The history of the metaverse
元宇宙的历史
?
Following the money: What is driving investment?
Interest in the metaverse has exploded. Global Google searches for “metaverse” skyrocketed 7,200 percent last year, and metaverse online gaming platform Roblox reportedly hit over 55 million daily active users in February 2022. Meta committed more than $10 billion into its Reality Labs division, which makes metaverse-related hardware such as VR goggles. And Microsoft said its planned $69 billion acquisition of gaming company Activision Blizzard would “provide building blocks for the metaverse.”
The metaverse is a developing opportunity.
Many analysts compare the growth of Metaverse to that of AI. Total metaverse-related investment is also proving to be significantly larger than it was for AI, which attracted $39 billion in investment in 2016—arguably a similar stage in its development trajectory to the metaverse today.
跟着钱走：是什么在推动投资？
人们对元宇宙的兴趣已经爆炸性增长。去年，全球谷歌搜索“metaverse”的次数猛增了7200%，据报道，2022年2月，元宇宙在线游戏平台Roblox的日活跃用户超过了5500万。Meta公司向其Reality Labs部门投入了100多亿美元，该部门生产VR眼镜等与元宇宙相关的硬件。微软表示，其计划以690亿美元收购的游戏公司Activision Blizzard将 “为元宇宙提供构建块"。
元宇宙是一个发展中的机遇。
许多分析师将元宇宙的增长与人工智能的增长相比较。事实证明，与元宇宙相关的投资总额也明显大于对人工智能的投资总额，人工智能在2016年吸引了390亿美元的投资——可以说，其发展轨迹与今天的元宇宙处于类似阶段。
?
Factors driving investor enthusiasm
Although the long-term vision of the metaverse is still to be realized, the early version of the metaverse is well established. More than three billion gamers globally are fueling it, and that proof of concept makes a difference for investors. In fact, there are multiple factors driving their enthusiasm and the growing belief we are at an inflection point where the metaverse as many imagine it will begin to materialize.
We envision the fully developed, long-term version of the metaverse to encompass most daily activities, spanning five core categories:
Gaming has been driving the development of the metaverse.
Socializing extends existing consumer behavior through platforms such as Decentraland, The Sandbox, ?and Second Life.
Fitness often marries gaming and connectivity through providers such as Peloton.
Commerce includes curated NFT art, virtual-only fashion, as well as start-ups promoting an immersive retail experience, including Obsess and AnamXR.
Remote learning remotely groups individuals in virtual classrooms.
推动投资者热情的因素
尽管元宇宙的长期愿景仍有待实现，但元宇宙的早期版本已经建立起来了。全球有超过30亿的游戏玩家在为它提供动力，这种概念的证明对投资者来说是不同的。事实上，有多种因素在推动着他们的热情，而且他们越来越相信我们正处于一个拐点，许多人想象中的元宇宙将开始实现。
我们设想充分发展的长期版本的元宇宙将包括大多数日常活动，横跨五个核心类别：
游戏一直在推动元宇宙的发展。
社会化通过Decentraland、The Sandbox和Second Life等平台扩展了现有的消费行为。
健身经常通过Peloton等供应商将游戏和连接结合起来。
商业包括策划的NFT艺术、虚拟时尚，以及促进沉浸式零售体验的初创公司，包括Obsess和AnamXR。
远程学习在虚拟教室中对个人进行远程分组。
?
Scanning the horizon: How is consumer and ?business behavior evolving?
How consumers view the metaverse
Almost 60 percent of consumers we surveyed are excited about the transition of everyday activities to the metaverse, with connectivity being the number one driver of excitement.
扫描地平线：消费者和商业行为是如何演变的？
消费者如何看待元宇宙
在我们调查的消费者中，近60%的人对日常活动向元宇宙的过渡感到兴奋，其中连接性是兴奋的第一驱动力。
?
编辑搜图
?
Envisioning the potential:How significant could the metaverse’s impact be?
A possible $5 trillion impact
A few years ago, investment in artificial intelligence was estimated at up to $10 billion. It is now $93 billion. We expect the economic value of the metaverse to rise exponentially, driven by several factors: its appeal spans genders, geographies, and generations; consumers are ready to spend on digital assets (and are doing so already); they are open to adopting new technologies; companies are investing heavily in the development of metaverse infrastructure; and brands experimenting in the metaverse are reporting positive consumer feedback.
潜力设想：元宇宙的影响会有多大？
可能有5万亿美元的影响
几年前，对人工智能的投资估计高达100亿美元。现在是930亿美元。我们预计，在以下几个因素的推动下，元宇宙的经济价值将成倍增长：其吸引力跨越性别、地域和世代；消费者已经准备好在数字资产上消费（并且已经在这样做了）；他们愿意采用新技术；公司正在大力投资开发元宇宙基础设施；在元宇宙进行试验的品牌正在报告消费者的积极反馈。
?
编辑搜图
?
In fact, around 70 percent of US consumers already say their digital identity is as important as their real-life identity. Balenciaga dropped a line of virtual gear and apparel in Fortnite together with a physical collection, resulting in a more than 40 percent increase in searches for its brand two days after launch.
For example, Forever 21 recently opened a store on Roblox and capitalized on a popular trend among metaverse users: the idea of “twinning” with your avatar, buying the same clothes and accessories for your real-world self. The result? A best-selling virtual-only item on Roblox, a black beanie hat, made its way to the company’s physical stores.
事实上，大约70%的美国消费者已经表示他们的数字身份和他们的现实身份一样重要。巴黎世家（Balenciaga）在 Fortnite?中投放了一系列虚拟装备和服装，与实体系列一起，结果在推出两天后，其品牌的搜索量增加了40%以上。
例如，Forever 21最近在Roblox上开了一家商店，并利用了元宇宙用户中流行的趋势：与你的化身“结对”的想法，为现实世界的你自己购买相同的衣服和配件。结果如何？Roblox上最畅销的虚拟商品，一顶黑色的小帽，进入了该公司的实体店。
?
Maximizing the human experience
One filter through which all decisions around a company’s involvement in the metaverse should pass is to ask:?how will this augment and elevate the human experience?
We believe five design principles should guide initial iterations of the metaverse:
Build a people-first experience, always considering the needs of people and how outcomes can potentially impact them.
Shift from social to societal, moving away from tools that simply allow communication to those emphasizing relationships between people, places, and brands.
Design responsibly, creating stellar experiences for people that ensure they’re not disconnected from reality.
Make accessibility and inclusivity a feature, enabling all people everywhere to participate and fully express themselves.
Reduce the physical and mental friction by adapting decades of 2-D and 3-D user-experience design to ensure we engage with each other in a more human way across worlds.
最大限度地提高人们的体验
公司对元宇宙的所有决定都应该抓住一个重点，那就是思考：这将如何增强和提升人们的体验？
我们认为，有五条设计原则应该指导元宇宙的最初迭代：
构建以人为本的体验，始终考虑人们的需求以及结果如何对他们产生潜在的影响。
从社交性转向社会性，从单纯的交流工具转向强调人、地方和品牌之间关系的工具。
以负责任的方式设计，为人们创造出色的体验，确保他们不与现实脱节。
使无障碍性和包容性成为一个特点，使世界各地的人都能参与并充分表达自己。
通过调整几十年来的二维和三维用户体验设计，减少身体和精神上的摩擦，以确保人们在世界各地都能以更人性化的方式相互接触。
?
“One of the biggest hurdles that the metaverse is going to need to overcome to move forward is helping people see what they couldn’t see before, know what they didn’t know before, and feel what they couldn’t feel or didn’t know to feel the day before,”. “What the metaverse is really all about is community. The value of belonging to this community. The role you can play as a user in this community so that you feel like a stakeholder and not as a ‘user.’ These are some of the human-based hurdles that I’m not hearing discussed enough.”
“元宇宙要向前发展，需要克服的最大障碍之一是帮助人们看到他们以前看不到的东西，知道他们以前不知道的东西，以及感受他们以前无法感受或不知道要感受的东西，”。“元宇宙的真正意义在于社区。属于这个社区的价值。你作为一个用户在这个社区中可以扮演的角色，使你觉得自己是一个利益相关者，而不是一个‘用户’。我没有听到足够的基于人的障碍讨论。”
Moving at speed: How do you capture value, and what can you do today?
Those who spend time researching the nascent metaverse will understand its appeal. The question for leaders then becomes two-fold: what role do you want your company to play, and how should you prepare? Companies have various ways they can participate in and capitalize on the metaverse, ranging from what we call “world builders”?similar to Hubbleverse?to providing products and services to metaverse users or building hardware and software. Yet defining your metaverse ambition is just the first step toward developing a strategic stance.
飞速前进：你如何捕捉价值，今天你能做什么？
那些花时间研究新生的元宇宙的人将理解它的吸引力。那么领导的问题就变成了两个方面：你希望你的公司扮演什么角色，以及你应该如何准备？公司有各种各样的方式来参与和利用元宇宙，从我们所说的类似于Hubbleverse的 “世界建造者"，到?为元宇宙用户提供产品和服务，或者建造硬件和软件。然而，确定你的元宇宙雄心只是制定战略立场的第一步。
?
Actions for executives to consider
The metaverse is likely to impact not only how businesses interact with customers, but how companies operate. There is no avoiding the fact that if you want to both understand consumers and opportunities that may be available to your organization, you need to be familiar with the metaverse. Make an effort to explore?Roblox,?Fortnite,?Minecraft, or a similar gaming experience.
领导层需要考虑什么
元宇宙不仅可能影响企业与客户的互动方式，而且可能影响公司的运营方式。无法回避的事实是，如果你既想了解消费者，又想了解你的组织可能获得的机会，你就需要熟悉元宇宙的情况。努力探索Roblox、Fortnite、Minecraft，或类似的游戏体验。
?
Conclusion
What will the metaverse be? And what will it do? Consumers and businesses are already beginning to explore ways it can deepen connectivity and complement everyday activities. And, within a decade, the metaverse has the potential to drive a very different world.
By 2030, it is entirely plausible that more than 50 percent of live events could be held in the metaverse.
In the end, with its potential to generate up to $5 trillion in value by 2030, the metaverse is simply too big to be ignored. It will have a major impact on our commercial and personal lives, which is why businesses, policymakers, consumers, and citizens are well advised to explore and understand as much as they can about this phenomenon, the technology that will underpin it, and the ramifications it will have for both our economies and wider society.
结论
元宇宙将是什么？它又能做什么？消费者和企业已经开始探索它能够深化连接和补充日常活动的方式。在十年之内，元宇宙有可能会推动一个非常不同的世界。
到2030年，超过50%的现场活动可能会在元宇宙中举行，这是完全有可能的。
最后，元宇宙到2030年有可能产生高达5万亿美元的价值，实在是大得不可忽视。它将对我们的商业和个人生活产生重大影响，这就是为什么企业、政策制定者、消费者和公民最好尽可能地探索和了解这一现象、支撑它的技术以及它对我们的经济和更广泛的社会所产生的影响。
?
?